College Waitlist Chances: What Your Odds Look Like

College Waitlist Chances: What Your Odds Look Like

As you see an email from your favorite college pop up in your inbox and rush to open the message, your heart sinks when you have been offered a place on the waitlist. Here’s the thing – it’s not a rejection. You’re still in the running, but you’ve got some work to do in order to convey your continued interest to the admissions officers. Before you take those steps, it can definitely help to understand your college waitlist chances. Naturally, being placed on the waitlist can come with a lot of questions. Why do schools have a waitlist in the first place? What does it mean for you? Are you completely doomed? In case this email has left you in a state of panic, breathe. 

The odds of getting off a waitlist depends on the school, as well as on the size and shape of the admitted cohort each year and what those other applicants decide about their destination. It may be frustrating that your fate depends on so many other factors and people, but it’s also important to be realistic and understand your college waitlist chances. To further break it down for you, I’ve elaborated on why universities have a waitlist in the first place, provided some recent data regarding waitlists at top schools, and discussed what you should expect once you’ve been placed on this unpredictable middle ground.

Why Do Colleges Waitlist Students?

You have probably heard about how universities want to maintain a certain yield rate, or percentage of accepted students who actually end up attending the school. Because the number of spots at every college is limited and schools want a high yield, not only do they wish to admit strong applicants, but they also typically hope to accept candidates who they believe are likely to say yes back to them. 

But practically speaking, 100% of the students who are admitted to an institution never all say yes. Not even at the most competitive schools in the world. This is why schools have predictive formulas and admit more students than they actually have room to accommodate. This calculation is complex on all sides. Schools have alternate students on the waitlist – where they place candidates who are absolutely qualified to attend the school and benefit from its resources, but they don’t know if they have room for them yet. If they have space after the students they admitted don’t accept their offers, some candidates from the waitlist are then sent “yes” letters.

Being on the waitlist means that the school does like your application – and you’re as qualified and compelling as other applicants. During the application process, admissions officers have to make tough decisions, and sometimes make adjustments on who gets admitted and who gets waitlisted right up until letters are sent out. Admissions officers would still love to have you on campus and are leaving the option open if space allows. If you were placed in this uncertain scenario at a college you very much want to attend, you may naturally be curious about your college waitlist chances and statistically how that has worked out for other students in a similar situation. We have information on that for you below.

College Waitlist Data for the Top 20 Schools

Seeing past data can give you a hint of what’s to come, even though it changes year to year based on who has applied. The following two tables feature the waitlist data at the top 20 national universities and liberal arts schools from the 2018-19 admissions cycle. Many schools publicize this information in their annual data set, while others such as Harvard, Columbia, and Yale don’t. For most of the colleges, we have included information on the number of students who were offered a spot, how many students said yes to a place on the waitlist, and the actual number of candidates who were admitted off the waitlist.

College Waitlist Chances at the Top 20 National Universities

College Waitlist Chances at the Top 20 Liberal Arts College

Some high-ranked schools, such as Princeton, MIT, and Dartmouth did not admit any students from the waitlist in this particular year. This means that the number of accepted students who will matriculate at these schools met (or exceeded) the desired class size number. This gives you an idea of just how competitive spots at these institutions can be; most students who are accepted want to attend. Other schools who did admit students off the waitlist still accepted only a few of them. The “164” at Cornell seems high, but when you compare it to the bigger picture, only 2.4% of the applicants offered a placed on the waitlist were ultimately admitted. 

Liberal arts colleges generally seem to have a higher rate of students when it comes to college waitlist chances, though there are still a couple who didn’t admit any applicants from it. This could again only be a reflection of just one year. Know that you’re not out of the running, but think about other prospects in case it doesn’t end up working out.

So, What Are Your College Waitlist Chances?

While you can gauge what the outcome of each school’s waitlisted students will be based on previous statistics, it’s hard to predict accurately because you don’t have any way of knowing the likelihood that accepted students will choose to matriculate.

You may wonder if some students have been placed higher on the waitlist than others, and therefore have a better chance of acceptance. Whether a waitlist is ordered or not depends on the college and what a school’s priority might be when the time comes. By May, they know which admitted students have submitted their deposit. According to InGenius Prep’s Zak Harris, who worked as the Director of Admissions at Regis College, “There can be thousands of names on the waitlist, so no, the entire list isn’t always reviewed,” he said. “Usually, within the waitlist, there are people that are put there that an admissions officer might say “if they decide to stay on the waitlist they’ll be admitted if we have spaces available. For the most selective schools, they might not even go to waitlist at all. It just depends.”

Remember that colleges are looking for a well-rounded class rather than a well-rounded student. So, if your application theme demonstrates involvement in extracurriculars or interests that the school believes they need out of their students that particular year, your college waitlist chances could end up being higher than your peers’. 

Next Steps

Once you know you’ve been waitlisted, that’s not the end of it. You’ve got more work to do. If you’re excited about the school, accept your place on the waitlist – students have to confirm this with the school, usually through the admissions portal. If the college isn’t your first choice though, you should consider declining the spot because there will be others who are more dedicated to attending if accepted.

It’s very important to continue demonstrating interest in the college if you hope to get off the waitlist. While you can send an additional letter of recommendation and updated grades and extracurricular achievements, the most important component is the letter of continued interest. Remind the admissions officers why their institution is a top choice for you, and if it’s your number one choice, let them know. Admissions officers take statements like “I will attend if accepted” very seriously when deciding who to admit off the waitlist. In your letter, talk about what you could bring and how you would be a good fit. But don’t bombard the admissions office with phone calls!

You can’t take your college waitlist chances for granted. You don’t know whether you’ll get in – so it’s best to submit a deposit to your second choice that has accepted you. The school that has waitlisted you likely won’t have spots freed up until they have heard from all admitted students. Committing yourself to another school will ensure that you have somewhere to go in case you don’t get off the waitlist. And if you get off the waitlist, you can always let the school where you previously submitted the deposit know.

College waitlist chances can be unpredictable. Whether the odds are in your favor depends on a number of factors, from yield rates to how many students a school is able to accept off the waitlist. Don’t automatically assume you’ll get off the waitlist just because your application is strong. But you should definitely do all that you can to convey your commitment towards the school. Wishing you all the best!