Can the U.S. Win Back Middle Eastern Students?

By Lindsey Kundel, Editor in Chief, InGenius Prep

Image Credit: Alex Shuper for Unsplash+

For years, the Middle East was one of the most reliable pipelines of international students to U.S. campuses. No country represented this better than Saudi Arabia. At its peak in 2015, the Kingdom sent more than 60,000 students abroad — the majority to the United States — through the King Abdullah Scholarship Program. Those numbers reshaped U.S. classrooms almost overnight.

But in 2023, the story looks very different. Active Saudi enrollments stood at just 22,589 — a decline of more than half in less than a decade. Across the region, countries from Jordan to the United Arab Emirates are sending fewer students each year. And unlike India, which has surged ahead, or even China, where the declines have been more modest, the Middle East continues to trend downward.

The question for American universities is clear: with the pandemic behind us and the Trump-era travel bans officially reversed, can the U.S. rebuild its standing in the Middle East — or has the moment passed?

Regional Enrollment Trends: 2022 → 2023

The SEVIS data makes it hard to ignore just how widespread the declines are. Ten of eleven Middle Eastern countries in our table sent fewer students to the U.S. in 2023 than in 2022. Regionally, that’s a net decline of 4,586 students year-over-year — from 84,549 to 79,963 (−5.4%).

Sources: DHS SEVIS Data Mapping Tool (Sept. 2022, Aug. 2023)

What stands out:

• Only Turkey grew (+2.8%). Every other country contracted, with Qatar (−28.9%), Israel (−11.0%), Oman (−10.8%), and the UAE (−10.5%) posting the sharpest drops.
  
• The median country decline was roughly −9.0% (Jordan/Lebanon range), underscoring how widespread the contraction is.
  
• The “big three” focus countries in this piece — Saudi Arabia (−7.7%), UAE (−10.5%), and Jordan (−9.0%) — together accounted for ~56% of the region’s net decline in 2023 (−2,557 out of −4,586).
  
• Those three also comprised ~36% of the total students in this 11-country set in 2023 (down slightly from ~37% in 2022).
  

The sharpest declines come from Saudi Arabia, the UAE, and Jordan — the three markets U.S. recruiters most often target. Qatar’s almost 30% drop shows how vulnerable smaller Gulf states are to policy shifts or changing domestic opportunities. Even countries with deep cultural or diaspora ties to the U.S., like Lebanon and Egypt, are slipping.

Only Turkey managed an increase (+2.8%), which looks more like a plateau than a surge. And even there, political volatility makes long-term growth uncertain. The regional story is contraction, not stability.

Saudi Arabia: From Boom to Tightened Belts

Saudi Arabia’s falloff is the most visible. Once the single largest source of Middle Eastern students abroad, Saudi has cut back sharply.

The reasons are not mysterious. Vision 2030 has reshaped national priorities, encouraging Saudis to study at home and aligning scholarship funding with fields the government deems essential — engineering, healthcare, AI. The open-ended King Abdullah scholarships of a decade ago no longer exist, replaced by tightly managed programs.

For U.S. universities, this means two things:

• The golden era of Saudi enrollments is unlikely to return in its old form.
  
• The students who do come now are more targeted, often better prepared, and studying in government-prioritized majors.

The comparison to China and India is instructive. China’s numbers have softened but not collapsed; India’s have exploded. Saudi Arabia, by contrast, represents a true retreat.

Saudi Arabia – Top 10 Institutions (Fall 2023, Bachelor’s & Beyond)

How to read this: Saudi enrollments remain concentrated in large public universities and a handful of private research powerhouses. ASU and Penn State dominate because they offer scale, program breadth, and clear pathways; BU and USC maintain appeal for families chasing prestige. The inclusion of FIU and Colorado State suggests that parents are prioritizing brand visibility, as well as perceived safety and affordability, beyond the top 25. The smaller U.S. colleges and intensive English programs that once thrived on Saudi scholarships are now largely absent. The Saudi market is no longer “any program, anywhere” — it is selective, strategic, and government-controlled.

United Arab Emirates: A Small but Resilient Pipeline

The UAE is tiny by population, but its students often punch above their weight. International school graduates in Dubai and Abu Dhabi are fluent in English, globally mobile, and accustomed to navigating multiple cultures.

Yet in 2023, just 1,920 UAE students were studying in the U.S. (−10.5% year-over-year). For context, only 34 UAE students were enrolled at a U.S. Top 50 institution for their bachelor’s degree (per our internal tally). Why? Because the UAE has successfully developed its higher education system at home. NYU Abu Dhabi, Sorbonne Abu Dhabi, and RIT Dubai all offer American- or European-style degrees within the Emirates. For many families, the trade-off is clear: why take on the visa headaches of the U.S. when you can earn a world-class degree closer to home?

United Arab Emirates – Top 10 Institutions (Fall 2023, Bachelor’s & Beyond)

How to read this: The UAE’s list reflects a hybrid of aspiration and specialization. Families value the brand power of Penn State, Wisconsin–Madison, BU, Columbia, and Penn — but the absolute numbers are small. Embry–Riddle’s presence signals an interest in aviation and aerospace aligned with national ambitions. Rather than chasing volume, Emirati students appear to be targeting specific programs that fit family priorities or workforce strategies.

Jordan and the Levant: Quiet but Loyal

Jordan sent 4,398 students to the U.S. in 2023 (−9.0%). These students are motivated by scholarships, diaspora connections, and the global reputation of an American degree. For many, the U.S. still represents opportunity — even if it requires more sacrifice than before.

Lebanon and Egypt tell similar stories, but affordability looms larger. Economic instability has pushed families to look for cheaper options, often in Europe or the region. Without significant scholarship support, the U.S. risks pricing itself out of reach.

Jordan – Top 10 Institutions (Fall 2023, Bachelor’s & Beyond)

How to read this: Jordan presents a dual-track approach. Families with resources pursue elite privates (NYU, Columbia). Scholarship seekers cluster at publics (SUNY Binghamton, University of Wisconsin–Milwaukee, University of Cincinnati). Eastern Michigan and Ball State underscore the role of institutional aid and affordability for middle-class families. This is not a volume market, but it is a consistent one.

Beyond Bachelor’s: The Power of Pathways

One wrinkle in the data is that the Top 10 lists above only reflect enrollment in Bachelor’s degrees and beyond. If you widen the lens to include language training, associate degree programs, and flight schools, the landscape looks very different — and in many ways, more revealing.

Saudi Arabia: A Flight School Hub

Saudi Arabia’s extensive list makes one thing clear: the country remains a significant source of students for aviation academies and English-language training programs.

Saudi Arabia – Top 20 Institutions (Fall 2023, All Levels & Pathways)

Read this as: a bifurcated market — government-prioritized majors at big universities on one side, and skills-based aviation/English training on the other.

United Arab Emirates: Language and Community Colleges

The UAE’s Top 20 looks entirely different once pathways are included: community colleges and language centers dominate.

United Arab Emirates – Top 20 Institutions (Fall 2023, All Levels & Pathways)

Read this as: pathway-first. Emirati families often test the waters with community colleges and language centers as affordable on-ramps before transferring.

Jordan: A More Traditional Profile

Jordan’s extended list is less pathway-heavy. While a few language centers and community colleges exist, universities remain the dominant institutions.

Jordan – Top 20 Institutions (Fall 2023, All Levels & Pathways)

Read this as: degree-forward. Pathways exist, but the Jordan profile is still dominated by universities/bachelor’s.

Why this matters: bachelor’s enrollment tells only part of the story. The Middle East is an ecosystem:

• Saudi → flight schools + English + big publics.
  
• UAE → community colleges + language centers as on-ramps.
  
• Jordan → direct university enrollment, pathways second.
  

U.S. institutions that focus only on four-year recruitment risk missing large, durable segments of demand.

The Psychology of Choice

Unlike Indian students, who often prioritize ROI, or Chinese families, who weigh rankings above all, Middle Eastern students bring a layered set of motivations:

• Family approval and safety often take precedence over cost.
  
• Gulf students are frequently family-funded, but their parents want reassurance on safety and visa matters.
  
• Levant students are more middle-class and scholarship-dependent; the U.S. often feels like a once-in-a-lifetime opportunity.
  
• Across the board, employability drives choices, with engineering, health, and business majors dominating.

In short, Middle Eastern students are not simply chasing rankings; they are seeking futures their families can believe in.

Competing Destinations

If U.S. enrollments are falling, it’s not because students are staying home. They are choosing elsewhere.

• UK, Canada, Australia: friendlier visa policies, strong diaspora ties, often lower total cost.
  
• Qatar’s Education City: American degrees (Georgetown, Northwestern, Carnegie Mellon) without leaving the Gulf.
  
• Dubai: a hub for transnational education.
  
• Turkey: a lower-cost, regionally accessible option.

The rise of these alternatives means the U.S. is no longer the default. Students weigh options carefully — many conclude they can get similar prestige closer to home.

Institutional Winners

Even amid declines, certain U.S. schools continue to attract Middle Eastern students. They share common traits:

• Large publics like Arizona State, Penn State, Wisconsin–Madison, and Texas A&M.
  
• Prestigious privates like NYU, Columbia, and BU that remain status symbols for families who can afford them.
  
• Specialized programs like Embry–Riddle (aviation) or FIU (business, hospitality) that align with national development strategies.
  

These institutions show that demand hasn’t vanished — but it has concentrated. Students are choosing pragmatically, not just aspirationally.

Arizona State University

Arizona State stands out as the single most consistent draw for Saudi students, topping their list when Global Launch enrollments are included. Global Launch provides English-language preparation and an on-ramp into degree study; the core campus offers engineering, business, and applied sciences aligned with Vision 2030 priorities. For many Saudi families, ASU represents a safe, scalable, supported choice.

The Pennsylvania State University

Penn State is perhaps the most ubiquitous name in the region: #2 for Saudis, #1 for Emiratis, in Jordan’s Top 10 as well. That consistency reflects size, reputation, and diaspora familiarity. Alumni networks stretch across the Gulf. Program strength in engineering, agriculture, and business fits both scholarship directives and self-funded goals. Penn State demonstrates that being everywhere — with programs for everyone — can be a winning strategy.

Columbia University

Columbia doesn’t top lists numerically, but it remains a prestige anchor. For Jordanian and Emirati families, Ivy League branding carries enduring weight. Even small numbers matter: these students are often elite-tier, wealthier applicants seeking degrees that signal status at home and abroad. In a shrinking pipeline, prestige retains its pull.

Boston University and George Mason University

Two names worth watching: Boston University and George Mason. BU appears prominently for both Saudi and Emirati students, combining private prestige with a global-city setting. George Mason has carved out a niche thanks to its Washington, D.C. location, international orientation, and competitive cost relative to peers. Both underscore how urban context + global reputation draw families who want recognized names without Ivy budgets.

The takeaway: demand hasn’t vanished, but it has concentrated around a smaller set of institutions. Large publics thrive on scale and workforce alignment; elite privates endure on brand; mid-tier urban universities succeed on visibility and value.

U.S. Soft Power & Policy Hangover

One factor shadows all of this: trust. The 2017 “Muslim ban” reverberates still. Families remember visa rejections, unpredictable policies, and feeling unwelcome. Even though the ban has been lifted, the perception lingers.

Layer on today’s visa wait times and safety concerns, and the U.S. brand feels aspirational but risky. Students may want the U.S., but parents ask: Is it worth the uncertainty?

The Shadow of Trump’s Second Presidency

Even as institutions strategize about recovery, the political landscape casts a long shadow. With Donald Trump now back in the White House, Middle Eastern families are asking whether history might repeat.

The “Muslim ban” of 2017 remains fresh — not only for those turned away, but for younger siblings who absorbed the message: the U.S. may not want you. Even rumors of renewed restrictions could chill demand.

Even absent formal bans, “America First” rhetoric resonates poorly in the region. Families question whether investing four years in the U.S. is worth the risk of policy whiplash. For recruiters, this is not just a PR challenge — it’s a confidence gap.

Signs of Recovery & Strategic Pathways

Declines aren’t destiny. The students who still choose the U.S. — the “quiet optimists” — show real resilience. Recovery is possible, but it requires work:

• Targeted scholarships that make the U.S. affordable again.
  
• Family-focused outreach that reassures on safety, visas, and belonging.
  
• Clear ROI storytelling — internships, OPT/CPT, and alumni outcomes must be front and center.
  
• Visible cultural respect on campus, from halal food to inclusive communities.

Without these, the U.S. risks losing a generation of Middle Eastern talent. With them, there is a path to renewal.

Conclusion

The Middle East once stood alongside China and India as a cornerstone of international recruitment. Today, it’s a cautionary tale: how quickly a pipeline can dry up when trust erodes and competitors step in.

For U.S. institutions, the way back is clear but not easy. Rankings won’t do it. What matters is rebuilding trust, emphasizing safety, and demonstrating real opportunity. Only then can the U.S. win back the students it has lost.

References

• DHS SEVIS Data Mapping Tool — September 2022 SEVIS Data (by country): https://studyinthestates.dhs.gov/sevis-data-mapping-tool/september-2022-sevis-data-mapping-tool-data
• DHS SEVIS Data Mapping Tool — August 2023 SEVIS Data (by country): https://studyinthestates.dhs.gov/sevis-data-mapping-tool/august-2023-sevis-data-mapping-tool-data
• SEVP / ICE — SEVIS by the Numbers 2023 Annual Report: https://www.ice.gov/doclib/sevis/btn/24_0510_hsi_sevp-cy23-sevis-btn.pdf