India Surpasses China in U.S. Enrollment-What Happens Next?

By Lindsey Kundel, Editor in Chief

For more than a decade, China held the title of the largest source of international students in the United States. But in 2023–2024, that changed—on every front. According to the latest Open Doors report, India officially surpassed China in total international student enrollment in the U.S., with 331,833 Indian students compared to 289,526 Chinese students.

And it wasn’t just overall headcount. SEVIS data, which tracks active F-1/M-1 visa holders and newly issued I-20s, shows that India overtook China in new enrollments as early as 2022–2023—and widened the gap further in 2023–2024.

This shift isn’t a temporary blip. It signals a fundamental change in how the world’s two most populous nations approach global education—and what that means for U.S. colleges and universities navigating international recruitment, visa risk, and institutional ROI.

China’s Decline: Structural, Political, and Still Unfolding

Back in 2019–2020, the U.S. hosted 372,532 Chinese students, according to Open Doors. Fast forward to 2023–2024, and that number has dropped to 289,526—a 22% decline, even as global mobility recovered from the pandemic.

Why the decline?

• Lingering pandemic disruption: Students delayed or missed critical admissions cycles during COVID, and many shifted plans altogether.
• Geopolitical tensions: U.S.–China relations have soured, particularly in tech-linked fields like AI, semiconductors, and biotechnology.
• Visa scrutiny: National security measures (like Section 212(f)) have made STEM visa approvals more complex.
• Demographic headwinds: China’s shrinking youth population (due to its aging curve and low birth rates) means fewer college-age students outbound.
• Global competition: Canada, the UK, and Australia have gained ground, offering faster visas and clearer immigration paths.

“We have to wait one month for a one‑year visa… others get a five‑year visa in three days.” — Chinese graduate student at Harvard Kennedy School (as cited in The Wire China)

And the most critical trend? Concentration. 

Chinese students increasingly cluster at a narrower band of institutions—typically brand-name universities with strong alumni networks, historically high rankings, and existing infrastructure for Chinese student support.

Once dispersed across a wide range of public and private colleges, Chinese enrollment is becoming more cautious, more coastal, and more consolidated. 

SEVIS data backs this up: Chinese students enrolled in 624 institutions in 2023–2024, up just slightly from 617 in 2022–2023. But the average number of Chinese students per institution remains nearly double that of Indian students (30 vs. 16), indicating continued clustering.

India’s Rise: Demographic Power, Strategic Planning, and STEM Ambitions

While China pulled back, India surged forward.

In 2019–2020, India sent just 193,124 students to the United States. By 2023–2024, that number had soared to 331,833, according to Open Doors—a nearly 72% increase in just four years.

SEVIS data paints a similarly sharp rise. From 2022–2023 to 2023–2024 alone, the number of active Indian F-1 visa holders grew from 107,351 to 129,203—a 20.3% year-over-year increase.

So what’s fueling the Indian boom?

1. Demographics and Demand

India is now the world’s most populous country, and its college-age population is still growing. According to a 2023 UN report, India has over 250 million people between the ages of 15 and 24—a massive cohort compared to China’s aging population.

More important than size, though, is mindset.

There’s a rising generation of urban, middle-class, English-speaking Indians with clear global ambitions. A 2022 survey by INTO University Partnerships found that 76% of Indian students intend to stay abroad after graduation—compared to just 45% of Chinese students. It’s not just about education. It’s about migration.

“Indian families tend to approach U.S. degrees as an immigration investment, not just a prestige play. There’s a long-term game plan built in from day one.”

— Admissions consultant in Delhi, 2024

2. Career Alignment and OPT Pathways

Unlike Chinese students, who remain more evenly split between undergraduate and graduate programs, Indian students are overwhelmingly graduate-bound, particularly in STEM fields like Computer Science, Data Analytics, and Engineering.

Why does that matter?

• These programs qualify for 24-month STEM OPT extensions, giving students up to three years of U.S. work authorization.
• Many funnel directly into H-1B visa pathways, often with employer sponsorship.
• And the academic-to-career ROI is clearer—especially compared to pricier U.S. undergrad programs.

In short, the Indian boom isn’t just about student interest. It’s about post-study work access and professional migration.

3. Broader Institutional Reach

Perhaps the biggest surprise in the data? Indian students are choosing more institutions and a wider geographic spread than their Chinese counterparts.

SEVIS shows that in 2023–2024:

• Indian students enrolled in 842 U.S. institutions, compared to just 624 for Chinese students.
• But their numbers were more diffuse: Indian students averaged 16 per institution, while Chinese students averaged 30.

That may sound minor, but the implication is huge: Indian enrollment is scaling horizontally, not just vertically. It’s about reach, not just depth.

And as someone who’s worked with Indian families navigating this process? It’s often a collective decision—siblings, uncles, cousins already abroad, WhatsApp chats full of research. The goal isn’t always the most elite campus. It’s the best possible value-fit-migration triangle.

Institutional Winners — Who Gained Ground (and Who Didn’t)

If India is reshaping the global enrollment map, then some U.S. institutions are catching the wave early—and others are missing it entirely.

Let’s take a closer look at the top 10 destinations for newly enrolled Indian students in 2023–2024, side by side with their Chinese student enrollment.

Top 10 Indian Destinations in 2023-2024 (With Chinese Student Enrollment Comparison)

While Indian students make up the largest population at each of these schools from their cohort, it’s worth noting that at two institutions—UIUC and UC San Diego—Chinese students still outnumber Indian students by a significant margin.

So what’s happening?

• UIUC (University of Illinois Urbana-Champaign) has long been a magnet for Chinese international students, especially at the undergraduate level. Its early expansion into the China market built a strong pipeline that hasn’t vanished—even as Indian graduate enrollment grows.

• UC San Diego, with its deep research ties and proximity to tech hubs, remains highly attractive to both populations. The gap here reflects how Chinese undergrad enrollment remains strong, while Indian students dominate grad programs, often enrolling through STEM-heavy departments on the MS side.

Even at Purdue and Penn State, where Indian and Chinese enrollment numbers are almost neck-and-neck, the enrollment layers are different. Indian students are more likely to be pursuing master’s degrees with a job outcome in mind, while Chinese students are often split between undergraduate and doctoral enrollment.

Indian students aren’t just going where Chinese students go. They’re charting their own institutional map, often at second-tier flagships or schools with well-developed data science, business analytics, or engineering programs.

ASU, Cal State Fresno, and UNT are clear examples of universities embracing volume + affordability + STEM alignment—a formula that wins in the Indian market.

As an educator who’s worked with Indian students applying to some of these very schools, I can tell you—name recognition helps, but ROI rules. And U.S. colleges that clearly connect curriculum to career to citizenship pathway are the ones breaking through.

Takeaway: Indian enrollment is booming—but Chinese visibility at certain institutions remains strong, especially where deep alumni networks, early outreach, or undergrad-driven programs have created momentum. What’s new is not that Indian students are replacing Chinese students 1:1. It’s that they are establishing parallel, often graduate-dominant, enrollment streams that now carry equal or greater strategic weight.

Now let’s flip the lens.

Here are the top 10 destinations for newly enrolled Chinese students in 2023–2024, along with Indian enrollment at those same schools:

Top 10 Chinese Destinations in 2023-2024 (With Indian Student Enrollment Comparison)

At nearly every institution, Chinese enrollment vastly outpaces Indian enrollment, often by a factor of 3x, 5x, or even 10x.

The pattern here?

These institutions are largely prestige-driven, often undergraduate-heavy pipelines for Chinese students.

Chinese families still invest in name-brand U.S. campuses on the coasts or in the Big Ten, even if the ROI is less direct.

Indian enrollment at these schools is often far lower—suggesting a selective approach, even at places with strong STEM programs. Indian students show up where the career infrastructure is strong. Chinese students show up where the brand is strongest. Same zip code, different compass.

Indian enrollment at most of these schools tends to be modest—with the exception of UIUC, UW–Madison, and Northeastern, where master’s programs in engineering, analytics, and data science are well-established.

Let’s break it down even further:

• NYU leads the pack by a wide margin, enrolling nearly 1,500 new Chinese students—while Indian enrollment clocks in at just 149. NYU’s deep roots in China, prestige branding, and global campuses (like Shanghai) help sustain this dominance.
• The University of California system (Irvine, Davis, Santa Barbara) continues to draw Chinese students in large numbers—benefiting from the West Coast geographic proximity, well-established feeder high schools, and longstanding cultural capital with Chinese families.
• Ohio State and Wisconsin–Madison stand out for their combination of flagship prestige + scholarship access, particularly at the undergraduate level—where Chinese students often enroll in high numbers due to strong alumni networks and visibility in Chinese rankings.
• Even schools like Minnesota–Twin Cities, which receive relatively little attention from Indian students, attract hundreds of Chinese students—highlighting the residual strength of historical outreach, elite partnerships, and large undergrad pipelines.

This pattern divergence between Chinese and Indian student choices has real implications for enrollment offices.

• Schools that lean heavily on Chinese undergraduate revenue may need to diversify fast—or risk a recruitment cliff.
• Meanwhile, schools that invest in master’s-level, STEM-certified, career-aligned programming stand to gain from India’s continued growth.

Takeaway: This is China’s stronghold—top-tier publics and prestige privates with deep undergraduate pipelines. While India has diversified across a broader array of institutions, China’s enrollment strategy remains concentrated, brand-driven, and coastal-heavy. These campuses continue to depend on Chinese students not just for volume, but for the full-pay undergraduate dollars that have historically anchored their international models.

Enrollment Distribution: A Tale of Two Strategies

One of the most striking differences between Indian and Chinese enrollment in 2023–2024 is how many schools each group is choosing to attend—and what that says about institutional strategy and student decision-making.

According to SEVIS & Open Doors:

This simple breakdown reveals a profound strategic reality:

• Indian enrollment is broader but shallower. Students are distributed across 842 institutions, including many mid-tier public universities, tech-focused polytechnic schools, and newer graduate programs. With nearly 220 more institutions on their list, Indian students are enrolling across a far more diverse slice of the higher ed landscape.
• Chinese enrollment is narrower but deeper. Fewer schools, but more students per school—often concentrated in elite institutions or schools with long-established Chinese pipelines.

“China is still fueling the elite brands. India is building its own middle-tier constellation.” — Higher ed strategist, 2024 NACAC panel

Why does this matter?

Because it shows how student decision-making is shaping the future of U.S. enrollment pipelines:

• Chinese students tend to rely on legacy brand value and prestige filters—applying to known campuses with historical alumni networks or strong U.S. News rankings.
• Indian students are willing to cast a wider net, often focusing on program-level quality, visa pathways, or affordability. A strong MS in CS program at a lesser-known state school might beat out a top-ranked university without OPT eligibility.

This dynamic has major implications:

• Schools that once thrived on large Chinese cohorts may find themselves overexposed unless they diversify into graduate, STEM-aligned Indian markets.
• Institutions with the flexibility to build graduate certificates, STEM OPT extensions, and industry-aligned master’s programs may find Indian students leading their next enrollment wave.

As someone who reviews enrollment strategy with clients, I often ask: “Are you trying to recruit prestige shoppers—or pragmatic planners?” Your answer will decide if you’re targeting China or India in 2026.

Comparing The Top 5 Institutions for Indian Enrollment with Chinese Enrollment

A Strategic Rebalancing in Real Time

This table isn’t just a headcount comparison—it’s a window into how institutional reliance is quietly shifting beneath the surface.

• Arizona State is one of the clearest success stories in the Indian market. With nearly 600 new Indian students in 2023–2024, ASU’s enrollment pipeline is clearly optimized for high-volume, STEM-driven graduate programs. Compare that to just 180 Chinese students—a respectable number, but not the engine it once was.
• At Fresno State, the disparity is even more extreme: Indian students outnumber Chinese students by a staggering 70 to 1. This isn’t a coincidence—it reflects India’s regional concentration in public, affordable, West Coast universities, especially those with MS programs in Computer Science and Data Analytics.
• UIC (University of Illinois Chicago) has quietly become an Indian student magnet. Nearly 235 Indian students enrolled in 2023–2024, compared to just 13 Chinese students. From my own conversations with students, UIC is seen as “practical and affordable”—close to industry, with decent post-grad employment outcomes.
• Purdue and Penn State are rare examples of near-parity between Indian and Chinese enrollment. But even here, the momentum is shifting. Indian enrollment has been ticking upward steadily, while Chinese numbers have held flat or declined slightly over the past three years.

What these schools have in common isn’t Ivy League branding. It’s alignment: graduate programs that feed directly into job markets, H-1B eligibility, and OPT-compatible curricula.

As someone who’s worked with families considering all five of these schools, I’ve seen a major mindset shift: Indian students are prioritizing pathways over prestige. They’re building long-term migration strategies, not just resumes.

Takeaway: As Chinese enrollment declines or plateaus at many of these institutions, Indian students are filling the vacuum—not just with headcount, but with strategic expectations. They want affordable degrees, visa support, and a job at the end of the road. And U.S. institutions that understand that triangle—cost, compliance, and career—are already winning.

Elite Enrollment: What About the Ivies?

At a glance, Indian enrollment across the Ivy League is growing—but the gaps remain wide at most institutions.

• At Cornell, Chinese enrollment is still 4x higher than Indian enrollment.
• At Columbia, Indian students make up just 30% of the newly enrolled Chinese headcount.
• Penn is a standout, with near-equal numbers—likely due to the strength of Wharton’s graduate business programs, nursing, and data science, which appeal to both markets.
• And then there’s Princeton and Dartmouth—where total enrollments for both India and China remain in the single digits. That’s not necessarily due to lack of demand, but to the nature of these schools: smaller, more undergraduate-focused, and less open to international graduate enrollments.

From a broader lens, this tracks with the structural preferences of each market:

• Chinese students continue to gravitate toward elite private universities, particularly for undergraduate study, where prestige still commands attention.
• Indian students, by contrast, are often laser-focused on outcome-aligned graduate programs, which tend to be concentrated at flagship publics, urban tech hubs, and institutions with robust post-graduation visa pipelines.

Takeaway: For Indian students, the Ivies are not the dream—they’re the detour.

High tuition, fewer STEM-aligned graduate options, and limited post-study work support make many of these elite institutions less attractive, despite global name recognition. Unless elite private universities evolve their offerings, particularly at the graduate level, they may remain largely off the Indian radar.

U.S. News Top 30 Schools

Chinese vs. Indian Enrollment at Top 30 U.S. News & World Report Universities (2023–2024)

India Enters, China Still Reigns—For Now

This is perhaps the clearest side-by-side view of the current moment.

• Schools like Michigan, Berkeley, and UCLA show massive dual enrollment from both groups—thanks to strong STEM reputations, global visibility, and robust international student infrastructure.
• USC, CMU, Emory, and Cornell are additional standouts where Indian enrollment is catching up to Chinese numbers.
• But at most Ivy-level and top 10 institutions, Chinese students still outnumber Indian students by 2x or more.
• Caltech enrolled just 3 Chinese and 0 Indian students in this dataset—emphasizing its ultra-narrow, highly selective intake.

Takeaway: For now, Chinese students still dominate at many of the most elite schools in the U.S. But Indian students are gaining serious ground—especially in STEM-heavy, career-connected programs. The gap is closing not because India is catching up everywhere, but because Indian students are redefining what counts as a “top” school.

Cost Comparison: A Driving Force Behind the Shift

Migration Math Meets Budget Reality

The cost gap here is staggering.

• On average, Chinese students are paying $12,000 to $15,000 more per year than Indian students.
• This is not just about tuition—it reflects broader market behavior and mobility strategy.

Chinese families have historically treated U.S. education as an elite investment—something worth full price for prestige and network access. They often fund undergrad degrees through family savings and are more likely to pay out of pocket without aid.

Indian families, by contrast, are laser-focused on ROI. Many students take out loans to fund master’s programs, and a school’s ability to deliver career placement, H-1B access, and STEM OPT extensions is often the tipping point—not its brand cachet.

Takeaway: For Indian students, affordability isn’t a bonus—it’s a baseline requirement. Institutions hoping to compete in this space must price smartly, promote job outcomes, and support visa processes clearly. Prestige alone won’t win them over.

Prestige at a Premium—But Only for Some

The following three tables highlight a small but meaningful segment of international students: those willing to pay top-tier tuition for elite U.S. institutions. While both Indian and Chinese students enroll at high-cost schools, their approach to prestige and value diverges in key ways.

Let’s zoom in:

So while the average cost is high for both groups, Chinese students are nearly 3x as likely to attend these institutions. But why?

Shared Schools, Different Strategies

Across both Top 30 lists, there are at least 12 schools that appear on both:

• Haverford College
• Brown University
• Vassar College
• Boston College
• Wesleyan University
• Occidental College
• Washington University in St. Louis
• Yale University
• Northwestern University
• George Washington University
• University of Southern California
• Pepperdine University

(Bonus shared schools across top 40: Barnard, Boston University, Sarah Lawrence So what does that overlap tell us?)

Chinese students enroll at these schools in higher numbers, especially when it comes to elite liberal arts colleges like Colby, Kenyon, and Franklin & Marshall, where Indian presence is minimal or nonexistent.

Indian students are more represented at research universities or career-aligned institutions like Northwestern, Carnegie Mellon, and USC, where STEM graduate programs or post-grad work visas may play a bigger role in the decision.

In fact, several elite liberal arts colleges on the Chinese list—Colby, Reed, Kenyon, Franklin & Marshall, Carleton, Skidmore—don’t appear at all on India’s top 30 most expensive list. That’s a major indicator of market divergence. It could also indicate that more graduate students from India are enrolling in US institutions compared to Chinese students (since we know that SEVIS data groups both undergraduate and graduate student enrollment numbers together).

Meanwhile, India’s list includes more California and business-aligned schools like Chapman, LMU, and RPI, as well as design-focused schools like RISD—suggesting either a different value perception or regional concentration (e.g., Indian families focusing more on the West Coast).

Strategic Implications

• For Chinese students, prestige and perception still carry weight, especially at the undergraduate level. Full pay is often expected and accepted—particularly when it comes with brand cachet and global recognition.
• For Indian students, cost is considered only when paired with strong ROI—usually through graduate-level training, STEM OPT eligibility, or a clear migration path.

Takeaway: Both markets have students willing to pay top dollar—but their motivations, institutional preferences, and long-term goals differ. The institutions that can blend elite branding with practical value—like Northwestern, USC, Brown, or WashU—are best positioned to win students from both groups.

Top 10 Most Expensive Schools for Newly Enrolled Indian Students

Top 10 Most Expensive Schools for Newly Enrolled Chinese Students

Conclusion — A Strategic Realignment in Motion

The global center of gravity in international education is shifting—and fast.

For more than a decade, Chinese students shaped the economics, rankings, and recruitment pipelines of U.S. higher education. But in 2023–2024, a historic turning point occurred: India officially overtook China in both total enrolled students (Open Doors) and newly enrolled visa holders (SEVIS). And with that milestone, Indian students are now redefining what international enrollment success looks like.

Chinese enrollment is declining—becoming more concentrated, more cautious, and increasingly entangled in political crosswinds. Where once there was scale and momentum, now there’s selectivity and slowdown.

In contrast, Indian enrollment is surging—more widely distributed, more graduate-focused, and deeply tied to career outcomes, visa reliability, and economic return on investment. This shift isn’t just about numbers—it’s about narrative.

India’s rise tells the story of a young, globally ambitious middle class betting on STEM, mobility, and migration. China’s retreat reflects a more complex blend of policy friction, pandemic scars, and demographic decline.

And U.S. universities? Many are still playing catch-up—caught between legacy recruitment models built for full-pay Chinese undergraduates and a fast-moving Indian market driven by affordability and pragmatism.

As someone who works closely with students and admissions teams across the globe, I see it firsthand: the students from India are coming in not just hungry—but prepared, focused, and looking for value. They’re not impressed by brochures. They want outcomes.

Final Takeaway: The international student market isn’t shrinking—it’s reshaping. The question is no longer if institutions can attract Indian students. It’s whether they can truly understand what motivates them, support how they move, and deliver the long-term value they’re coming for.