Last Updated on October 1, 2026
Quick answer: College enrollment decline is hitting small private colleges and regional public universities hardest. Undergraduate enrollment fell 15% between 2010 and 2021, and the number of high school graduates is projected to shrink after 2025. When building your college list, check each school’s enrollment trends, finances, and program stability alongside fit.
If you’re building your college list, you’ve probably considered rankings, test score ranges, and perhaps even browsed a few glossy admissions brochures. But there’s a quieter shift happening in higher education that most students and families overlook, yet it could significantly impact your college experience.
Across the United States, college enrollment decline has become a defining trend. This trend is particularly pronounced at small private colleges and regional public universities, institutions that, just a decade ago, were thriving centers of academic and community life.
A Wall Street Journal article highlighted Macomb, Illinois, where Western Illinois University has lost nearly half its student body since 2010. As the university contracted, so did the town’s economy, population, and opportunities for students.
Macomb is not an isolated case. Similar patterns are emerging nationwide, reshaping the college landscape, and it’s something you should consider as you finalize your school list.
College Enrollment Decline Isn’t Just a Small-Town Problem
Between fall 2010 and fall 2021, total undergraduate enrollment at U.S. degree-granting institutions declined by 15%, from 18.1 million to 15.4 million students, according to the National Center for Education Statistics. [1] This trend isn’t solely due to the pandemic. Demographic shifts, such as falling birth rates, have led to fewer high school graduates in certain regions, particularly in the Midwest and Northeast.
As a result, many colleges are grappling with enrollment challenges. Some are cutting programs or staff, others are expanding online offerings, and a few are merging or closing altogether.
In 2024 alone, at least 20 colleges closed, a number that could increase in the coming years due to proposed cuts to Pell Grants and loans, as reported by the Institute for College Access & Success. [2]
Recent College Closures and At-Risk Institutions
Understanding which colleges have closed or are at risk can provide valuable context as you assess potential schools. Here are some notable examples:
- Birmingham–Southern College (Alabama): This private liberal arts college closed at the end of the 2023–24 academic year after years of financial trouble. [3]
- Union Institute & University (Ohio): A private online university that closed permanently on June 30, 2024, due to severe financial challenges. [4]
- Hodges University (Florida): Announced plans to close permanently by the end of August 2024, citing declining enrollment and financial challenges.
- Eastern Gateway Community College (Ohio): Closed on October 31, 2024, after experiencing severe financial distress.
- University of Saint Katherine (California): Announced its closure in April 2024, filing for bankruptcy following financial shortfalls.
Large public systems are consolidating campuses, too:
- Penn State University (Pennsylvania): Moved to close seven of its Commonwealth Campuses due to ongoing enrollment declines and financial pressures.
- University of Wisconsin-Oshkosh (Wisconsin): Announced the closure of its Fox Cities campus amid an enrollment plunge.
Why the Decline Is Likely to Continue
Demographics point to more pressure ahead. The Western Interstate Commission for Higher Education projects that the number of U.S. high school graduates will peak in 2025 and then decline steadily through 2041, a drop of about 13% from the peak. [5] The Midwest and Northeast have already seen declines, while the South is expected to keep growing before leveling off. Compared with 2023, 38 states are projected to have fewer graduates by 2041. [5]
For you, this means the colleges most dependent on students from shrinking regions will face the hardest choices. Schools with a national applicant pool, a clear academic identity, and steady demand for their programs are better positioned than schools that draw almost entirely from nearby towns. That does not make every small or regional school a risk, but it does make the question of stability worth asking early.
Why This Matters for Students
From the outside, a college may still appear robust. However, once on campus, you might notice fewer course options, limited extracurricular activities, or faculty turnover, signs of an institution under financial or enrollment strain.
While prestige and selectivity often dominate college discussions, stability is equally crucial, especially if you plan to spend four formative years there, build relationships, and launch your career.
When a school is shrinking, several aspects can be affected:
- Academic Quality: Reduced funding may lead to fewer classes and less experienced professors.
- Student Life: Clubs, sports teams, and campus events often suffer.
- Career Outcomes: A declining alumni network and fewer on-campus recruiting opportunities can impact job prospects.
What Enrollment Decline Means for Admissions
A shrinking applicant pool does not affect every college the same way. At many regional and small private colleges, admission may become less competitive as schools work to fill their classes, and some are adding rolling deadlines or later application dates. At the most selective universities, demand remains far higher than the number of seats, so national enrollment trends do little to change your odds there.
That split is worth understanding as you build a balanced list. A less selective school with a clear academic identity, steady enrollment, and a loyal alumni base can be an excellent choice, and a place where you get more attention from faculty. A school that is easier to get into because it is struggling to attract students deserves a closer look before you commit. The goal is not to avoid smaller schools, but to choose the ones that will still offer the courses, mentors, and opportunities you want in your third and fourth years.
How to Evaluate a School’s Trajectory
This doesn’t mean you should avoid all small or regional schools. Many offer excellent programs and personalized support, including many liberal arts colleges. However, it’s essential to look beyond rankings.
Here are a few factors to consider:
- Enrollment Trends: Review the past 5–10 years. Are numbers increasing, decreasing, or stable?
- Financial Health: Is the college investing in new programs or facilities, or is it closing departments?
- Campus Morale: Read the student newspaper or forums. What are students saying about their experiences?
- Location: Colleges in declining towns may face more challenges than those in growing urban centers.
Where to Find Enrollment and Stability Data
You do not need special access to check a school’s trajectory. The National Center for Education Statistics runs College Navigator, a public tool that lets you look up colleges and compare them side by side, including their enrollment, retention, and graduation figures. [6] Look at several years of data rather than a single snapshot. A steady first-year retention rate and consistent enrollment are reassuring signs.
Many colleges also publish a Common Data Set on their institutional research pages, which reports enrollment, admissions, and retention in a standard format. Local news coverage, faculty senate minutes, and the student newspaper will often report program cuts or budget shortfalls long before they appear anywhere else.
It is also worth checking a college’s accreditation status. Regional accreditors publish the actions they take, and a warning or probation notice often signals financial or governance concerns that deserve a closer look. None of these sources tells the whole story on its own, but together they give you a far clearer picture than a glossy brochure or a single ranking. If several warning signs appear at once, such as falling enrollment, program cuts, and an accreditation notice, treat that school with extra caution.
Questions to Ask on a Campus Visit
- Have any majors, minors, or departments been cut or merged recently?
- How many sections of core and upper-level courses in my intended major run each semester?
- What is the first-year retention rate, and how has it changed?
- Are clubs, teams, and study abroad options growing, steady, or shrinking?
- What would happen to students in my program if it were discontinued?
Admissions officers hear these questions often, and a confident, specific answer is a good sign. If you get vague responses, follow up with current students.
Build a College List With Stability in Mind
At InGenius Prep, we work with students not just on getting in, but on thriving once they’re there. That means helping families weigh not only academic fit and prestige but also long-term institutional health.
If you’re building your school list now, ask yourself:
- Will this school support me academically and personally for four years?
- Is it on solid financial footing?
- Does it have a clear vision for the future?
Choosing a college isn’t just about where you start; it’s about where that choice can take you. Our articles on making a college list and choosing safety schools can help you apply the same thinking to every tier of your list. Let us help you build a list that considers all the factors that matter.
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